2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 1-3. The latest was 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-PD. The present numbers are 1454 against 1476, and the model turns that into 43.0% / 26.5% / 30.6%.
22 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -46 and -24. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 36.5% / 27.9% / 35.6%. That call matched the result. The underlying rates are near-identical — attack 0.91 against 0.85, defence 1.12 against 1.09. A 12.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Behind them are 44 and 44 rated matches. By expected share of the points: 56.2% and 43.8%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Goal expectation splits 1.47 to 1.28. In absolute terms: Sevilla FC 0.91/1.12, Valencia 0.85/1.09 on attack and defence. Win-or-lose totals 73.6%; the draw takes the rest. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Sevilla FC carries the largest share, 43.0%. The match finished 1-0. The away side is rated higher. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.0%. Most and least likely outcomes are 16.5 points apart.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Sevilla FC edged past Valencia 1-0 on 11 September 2026. Juan Iglesias opened the scoring late on, in the 81st minute for Sevilla FC, set up by Giorgi Kochorashvili, to make it 1-0. Ryunosuke Sato (27'), Chidera Ejuke (67') and Pablo Maffeo (88') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Valencia just 22 rating points ahead of Sevilla FC, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. Sevilla FC won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.