Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2026 the split is 0-1-1 from Real Betis's side on wins, 2-6 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-PD. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1620 and 1713 — 93 points — for a 32.4% / 27.0% / 40.6% split.
From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +120 and +213. The leading outcome clears the second by 8.2 points. In absolute terms: Real Betis 1.16/0.93, Real Madrid 1.54/0.90 on attack and defence. The model gives 73.0% to someone winning. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. As a single number the model says 1-1. Distance between the ratings: 93 points, wide on this scale. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 26.1% / 25.2% / 48.7%. The result went the other way. Real Madrid holds both halves of the profile — 1.54 against 1.16 for scoring, 0.90 against 0.93 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Outcomes span 13.6 points. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The higher rating belongs to the away side. By expected share of the points: 46.0% and 54.0%.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Real Betis edged past Real Madrid 1-0 on 4 September 2026. Troy Parrott opened the scoring late on, in the 81st minute for Real Betis to make it 1-0. 7 players were booked, among them Arda Guler (45'), Ibrahima Konaté (54'), José Mourinho (54'), Eduardo Camavinga (61'), Facundo Bernal (64') and Marc Roca (83'). Troy Parrott scored after coming off the bench. Real Betis are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in La Liga 2025/26, La Liga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27. Real Betis won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.