On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 2-5 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-PD. Currently 1492 against 1395 — a 60.5% / 22.3% / 17.1% split.
Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -8 and -105. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 77.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Between best and worst outcome there is 43.4 points of daylight. The higher-rated side expects 71.8% of the points; the other side 28.2%. Neither figure is thin: 44 and 45 matches respectively sit behind them. In absolute terms: Alavés 1.04/0.96, Osasuna 0.79/1.20 on attack and defence. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 54.9% / 23.8% / 21.3%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.6%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. xG: 1.86 to 1.03. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. 97 points of rating separation. 60.5% goes to Alavés, the model's lean. A 38.2-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The higher rating belongs to the home side. It ended 5-2. Alavés is ahead on each half — 1.04 to 0.79 in attack, 0.96 to 1.20 in defence.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Alavés comfortably beat Osasuna 5-2 on 6 September 2026. Lucas Boyé opened the scoring in the 27th minute for Alavés, set up by Mariano Díaz, to make it 1-0. Mariano Díaz added to the tally in the 36th minute for Alavés, set up by Sivera, to make it 2-0. Ante Budimir pulled one back 46 minutes into the game for Osasuna, set up by Moi Gómez, to make it 1-2. Lucas Boyé added to the tally 51 minutes into the game for Alavés, set up by Carles Aleñá, to make it 3-1. Ante Budimir pulled one back from the penalty spot 64 minutes into the game for Osasuna to make it 2-3. Lucas Boyé added to the tally 68 minutes into the game for Alavés, set up by Ángel Pérez, to make it 4-2. Pablo Ibáñez Tébar added to the tally late on, in the 90th minute for Alavés, set up by Ángel Pérez, to make it 5-2. Abel Bretones (58'), Abde Rebbach (62') and Rockson Yeboah (84') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Alavés are 97 points stronger than Osasuna. On current ratings the model favours Alavés at 60.5% in this pairing, and Alavés won this one. On current ratings the model puts Alavés at around 1.86 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Alavés won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.