On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 3-3 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-PD. Currently 1411 against 1454 — a 39.4% / 27.3% / 33.3% split.
The xG line reads 1.46 to 1.34. Neither figure is thin: 45 and 44 matches respectively sit behind them. Top of the distribution: Espanyol, 39.4%. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.9%. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Rating separation comes to 43 points. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 41.7% / 26.8% / 31.5%. The result went the other way. Sevilla FC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 46.8%. Espanyol sits 6.1 points above the next most likely result. Spread across the three results is 12.1 points. A decisive result carries 72.7% against 27.3% for the draw. Versus the 1500 seed: -89 and -46. Neither side holds a component edge worth the name: scoring rates of 0.88 against 0.91, conceding rates of 1.09 against 1.12. Its point estimate is 1-1. Attack/defence pairs: 0.88/1.09 and 0.91/1.12. Final score: 1-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Espanyol and Sevilla FC drew 1-1 on 6 September 2026. Lucas Stassin opened the scoring late on, in the 85th minute for Sevilla FC to make it 1-0. Marcos Fernández levelled it in the 98th minute for Espanyol to make it 1-1. Arouna Sangante (56') was sent off. Giorgi Kochorashvili (2'), Álex Calatrava (14'), Robbie Ure (27'), Miguel Ángel Sierra (40'), Moscardo (46') and Luís García (57') were booked. Lucas Stassin and Marcos Fernández scored after coming off the bench.