Prior record: 0-2-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-PD. Against that, current ratings read 1472 and 1411, a 61-point margin, and the model splits the tie 55.6% / 23.6% / 20.8%.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -28 and -89. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Expected goals come out at 1.85 to 1.55. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Both figures rest on decent samples, 45 and 45 matches. First to second is a 32.0-point step, Real Sociedad over the draw. The higher rating expects 67.4% of the points, the lower 32.6%. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 61 points. Higher rating: the home side. In absolute terms: Real Sociedad 1.14/1.30, Espanyol 0.88/1.09 on attack and defence. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 9.6%. A 34.8-point range top to bottom. Real Sociedad carries the largest share, 55.6%. Played and finished 2-1. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 50.1% / 24.9% / 25.0%. That call matched the result. One edge each: scoring to Real Sociedad (1.14 v 0.88), conceding to Espanyol (1.09 v 1.30).
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Real Sociedad edged past Espanyol 2-1 on 29 August 2026. Ander Barrenetxea opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Real Sociedad, set up by Mikel Oyarzabal, to make it 1-0. Roberto Fernández levelled it in the 45th minute for Espanyol, set up by Coarasa, to make it 1-1. Real Sociedad regained the lead through Orri Oskarsson 61 minutes into the game, set up by Mikel Oyarzabal, to make it 2-1. Beñat Turrientes (17'), Urko González (22'), Marcos Fernández (75'), Roger Hinojo (82'), Rafael Bauzà (88') and Igor Zubeldía (90') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Real Sociedad at 55.6% in this pairing, and Real Sociedad won this one. Real Sociedad won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.