Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2026 the split is 0-1-1 from Alavés's side on wins, 2-4 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-PD. Currently 1492 against 1527 — a 40.8% / 27.0% / 32.3% split.
73.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The match finished 1-0. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -8 and +27. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 9.4% leads, but only just. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Before kickoff our model had this at 34.4% / 27.6% / 38.0%. The match did not follow it. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. One edge each: scoring to Villarreal (1.30 v 1.04), conceding to Alavés (0.96 v 1.14). Most and least likely outcomes are 13.8 points apart. The xG line reads 1.77 to 1.69. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. In absolute terms: Alavés 1.04/0.96, Villarreal 1.30/1.14 on attack and defence. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 35 points. Elo expected shares: 54.3% and 45.7%. Most likely single result is Alavés on 40.8%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Alavés edged past Villarreal 1-0 on 28 August 2026. Lucas Boyé opened the scoring in the 31st minute for Alavés, set up by Ángel Pérez, to make it 1-0. Renato Veiga (45') and Abde Rebbach (48') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Villarreal slightly the stronger side, by 35 rating points over Alavés, even though it was Alavés who won this one. Alavés won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.