Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 1-0-1 from Atleti's side on wins, 3-5 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-5 in comp-fd-PD. The present numbers are 1605 against 1527, and the model turns that into 58.0% / 23.0% / 19.0%.
Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 7.8%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +105 and +27. No scoreline clear 8% individually. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. The ratings draw on 61 and 51 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Raw profiles are 1.33 and 1.04 against 1.30 and 1.14. Before kickoff our model had this at 51.0% / 24.7% / 24.3%. That one did not come off. Higher rating: the home side. 77.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Ratings sit 78 apart. Goal expectation splits 2.25 to 1.83. The three results cover 39.0 points. Final score: 2-2. Neither component contradicts the other: Atleti leads 1.33-1.30 forward and 1.04-1.14 back. Atleti's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 69.5%. The model's preferred outcome is Atleti at 58.0%. Atleti leads the distribution by 35.0 points over the draw.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Atleti and Villarreal drew 2-2 on 23 August 2026. Marc Pubill opened the scoring 59 minutes into the game for Atleti, set up by Giuliano Simeone, to make it 1-0. Gerard Moreno levelled it from the penalty spot 66 minutes into the game for Villarreal to make it 1-1. Georges Mikautadze put Villarreal in front from the penalty spot 78 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Giuliano Simeone levelled it late on, in the 85th minute for Atleti, set up by Álex Baena, to make it 2-2. Robin Le Normand (76') was sent off. Santiago Mouriño (50'), Álex Baena (54'), Morten Hjulmand (76') and José Giménez (90') were booked. Gerard Moreno scored after coming off the bench. Every goal came after the interval.