2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2026, aggregate 3-7. The latest was 2026, 2-3 in comp-fd-PD. Today those sides rate 1476 and 1461, 15 apart, which resolves to 48.7% / 25.2% / 26.1%.
Top of the distribution: Valencia, 48.7%. Goal expectation splits 1.16 to 1.27. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -24 and -39. Celta is ahead on each half — 0.86 to 0.85 in attack, 0.92 to 1.09 in defence. Raw profiles are 0.85 and 1.09 against 0.86 and 0.92. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 49.5% / 25.0% / 25.5%. The match did not follow it. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Spread across the three results is 23.5 points. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 61.3% to 38.7%. With 44 and 43 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. As a single number the model says 1-1. A 15-point difference on the rating scale. Valencia holds a 22.6-point edge on the next outcome. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. 74.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Valencia and Celta could not be separated in a goalless draw on 22 August 2026. Justin de Haas (38'), Stole Dimitrievski (40') and Sergio Carreira (57') were booked. Celta are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.