On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 4-4 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-PD. History aside, the live ratings of 1457 and 1454 drive a 46.8% / 25.6% / 27.6% distribution.
1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.8% — not a strong call. A 21.2-point range top to bottom. Win-or-lose totals 74.4%; the draw takes the rest. The tie closed out 1-3. Neither side holds a component edge worth the name: scoring rates of 0.90 against 0.91, conceding rates of 1.08 against 1.12. Before kickoff our model had this at 46.9% / 25.6% / 27.5%. That one did not come off. A 19.2-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Expected shares 59.7% against 40.3% on Elo. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Neither figure is thin: 52 and 44 matches respectively sit behind them. The four component numbers read 0.90, 1.08, 0.91, 1.12. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Most likely single result is Athletic on 46.8%. Its rounded call is 1-1. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.50 and 1.32. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -43 and -46.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Sevilla FC beat Athletic 3-1 on 22 August 2026. Oso opened the scoring inside the first 15 minutes for Sevilla FC to make it 1-0. Chidera Ejuke added to the tally 50 minutes into the game for Sevilla FC, set up by Isaac, to make it 2-0. Isaac added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Sevilla FC, set up by Oso, to make it 3-0. Aitor Paredes Casamichana got one back 70 minutes into the game for Athletic, set up by Yeray Álvarez, to make it 1-3. Yuri Berchiche (11') was sent off. Peque (22'), Gorka Guruzeta (25'), Miguel Ángel Sierra (25'), Jon Guridi (39'), Ruiz de Galarreta (87') and Nicolás Guillén (90') were booked. Chidera Ejuke and Isaac scored after coming off the bench. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Sevilla FC only a 27.6% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Athletic are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.