Prior record: 0-1-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-PD. Currently 1476 against 1620 — a 26.3% / 25.3% / 48.5% split.
Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.3%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 41.2% / 26.9% / 32.0%. The match did not follow it. Between best and worst outcome there is 23.2 points of daylight. Real Betis leads the distribution by 22.2 points over Valencia. Versus the 1500 seed: -24 and +120. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. xG: 1.17 to 1.70. Someone wins 74.8% of the time by this model. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Attack/defence pairs: 0.85/1.09 and 1.16/0.93. Real Betis's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 61.2%. Ratings sit 144 apart. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 44 and 45 rated matches respectively. Its rounded call is 1-1. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Real Betis holds both halves of the profile — 1.16 against 0.85 for scoring, 0.93 against 1.09 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 48.5% goes to Real Betis, the model's lean.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Real Betis edged past Valencia 1-0 on 25 August 2026. Pablo García opened the scoring late on, in the 83rd minute for Real Betis, set up by Fran García, to make it 1-0. Ryunosuke Sato (26'), Júnior Firpo (42') and Mouctar Diakhaby (89') were booked. Pablo García scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Real Betis 144 points stronger than Valencia. Real Betis are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in La Liga 2025/26, La Liga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.