Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-PD. The live ratings are 1461 and 1395, giving 56.3% / 23.4% / 20.3%.
With 43 and 45 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. First to second is a 32.9-point step, Celta over the draw. The higher-rated side expects 68.0% of the points; the other side 32.0%. Played and finished 1-2. Goal expectation splits 1.53 to 0.98. Attack/defence pairs: 0.86/0.92 and 0.79/1.20. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -39 and -105. Distance between the ratings: 66 points, moderate on this scale. Someone wins 76.6% of the time by this model. Logged in advance of kickoff — 59.6% / 22.6% / 17.8%. The match did not follow it. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-0 highest at 12.4%. Both components point the same way, toward Celta: 0.86 to 0.79 going forward, 0.92 to 1.20 going back. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-0.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Osasuna edged past Celta 2-1 on 27 August 2026. Iago Aspas opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Celta, set up by Miguel Román, to make it 1-0. Kike Barja levelled it 54 minutes into the game for Osasuna, set up by Raúl, to make it 1-1. Ante Budimir put Osasuna in front from the penalty spot 64 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Marcos Alonso (51') was sent off. Jonathan Dubasin (28') was booked. Ante Budimir scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Celta slightly the stronger side, by 66 rating points over Osasuna, even though it was Osasuna who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Osasuna only a 20.3% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Celta are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.