The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 0 to Alavés, 1 to Getafe, 1 drawn, 1-3 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-PD. Against that, current ratings read 1492 and 1442, a 50-point margin, and the model splits the tie 53.9% / 24.0% / 22.1%.
As a single number the model says 1-0. Most weight falls on 1-0 at 17.6%. Raw profiles are 1.04 and 0.96 against 0.56 and 0.77. The split is one apiece: Alavés leads the attacking rate on 1.04, Getafe the defensive on 0.77. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -8 and -58. The forecast we stored before the match was 38.3% / 27.5% / 34.2%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Expected goals sit at 1.19 against 0.72. Result on the day: 3-0. A decisive result carries 76.0% against 24.0% for the draw. By expected share of the points: 66.0% and 34.0%. Most and least likely outcomes are 31.8 points apart. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The leading outcome clears the second by 29.9 points. 50 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Alavés comfortably beat Getafe 3-0 on 15 August 2026. Kiko Femenía (42') was sent off. Davinchi (10'), Mario Martin (22'), Denís Suárez (45') and Abde Rebbach (66') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Alavés are 50 points stronger than Getafe. Alavés won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.