The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 1 to Sevilla FC, 0 to Rayo Vallecano, 1 drawn, 2-1 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-PD. The present numbers are 1454 against 1501, and the model turns that into 39.0% / 27.4% / 33.7%.
Rayo Vallecano's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 47.4%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.6%. Final score: 2-1. Sevilla FC holds a 5.3-point edge on the next outcome. Top of the distribution: Sevilla FC, 39.0%. Win-or-lose totals 72.7%; the draw takes the rest. Top to bottom the spread is only 11.6 points. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 30.3% / 26.4% / 43.3%. The result went the other way. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The four component numbers read 0.91, 1.12, 0.95, 1.09. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -46 and +1. On expected goals the model has it 1.47 against 1.43. The underlying rates are near-identical — attack 0.91 against 0.95, defence 1.12 against 1.09. Rounded, that is 1-1. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 44 and 44 matches.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Sevilla FC edged past Rayo Vallecano 2-1 on 15 August 2026. Álvaro García opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Rayo Vallecano to make it 1-0. Jon Guridi levelled it from the penalty spot 52 minutes into the game for Sevilla FC to make it 1-1. Peque put Sevilla FC in front from the penalty spot in the 97th minute to make it 2-1. Kike Salas (88') was sent off. Isaac (45'), Jon Guridi (60'), Álvaro García (67'), Unai López (75'), Fran Perez (76') and Gabriel Suazo (81') were booked. Peque scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Rayo Vallecano slightly the stronger side, by 47 rating points over Sevilla FC, even though it was Sevilla FC who won this one.