2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2026, aggregate 1-1. The latest was 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-PD. The present numbers are 1411 against 1455, and the model turns that into 39.4% / 27.3% / 33.3%.
The higher-rated side expects 47.0% of the points; the other side 53.0%. The distribution runs from 39.4% down to 27.3%. Played and finished 3-0. Attack/defence pairs: 0.88/1.09 and 1.06/1.31. Before kickoff our model had this at 37.7% / 27.6% / 34.7%. That call matched the result. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.1%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.71 for Espanyol, 1.57 for Levante. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.06 to 0.88 says Levante, 1.09 to 1.31 says Espanyol. Win-or-lose totals 72.7%; the draw takes the rest. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Espanyol sits 6.1 points above the next most likely result. Rating separation comes to 44 points. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -89 and -45. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 45 and 43 matches. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Espanyol comfortably beat Levante 3-0 on 16 August 2026. Roberto Fernández opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for Espanyol to make it 1-0. Roberto Fernández added to the tally in the 40th minute for Espanyol, set up by Coarasa, to make it 2-0. Tyrhys Dolan added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Espanyol, set up by Rafael Bauzà, to make it 3-0. Urko González (37'), Álex Calatrava (63') and Coarasa (68') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Levante slightly the stronger side, by 44 rating points over Espanyol, even though it was Espanyol who won this one. Espanyol won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.