Charlton 0–1 Bolton: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1359against1354

A 5-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Goal expectation

Charlton1.27

Bolton1.49

Expected share of the points

01
Prior record: 2-5-1 across 8 since 2012. Most recent 2016, 0-0 in Championship. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1359 and 1354 — 5 points — for a 47.1% / 25.6% / 27.3% split.
02
Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Charlton holds a 19.8-point edge on the next outcome. The distribution runs from 47.1% down to 25.6%. Point estimate: 1-1. On expected goals the model has it 1.27 against 1.49. The home side is rated higher. Top of the distribution: Charlton, 47.1%. On the Elo curve they expect 59.9% and 40.1% of the points. With 60 and 400 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The two ratings differ by 5 points. Neither side holds both halves — Bolton scores at 0.97, Charlton concedes at 1.14. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 12.0%. The four component numbers read 0.61, 1.14, 0.97, 1.41. The model gives 74.4% to someone winning. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -141 and -146. Final score: 0-1. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually.
03
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Bolton edged past Charlton 1-0 on 3 November 2026.

Before the match

Charlton's previous five results comprised two draws and three defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 11 conceded, with no wins. Middlesbrough were their latest opponents, away on 31 October: a 3-0 defeat.

Against Middlesbrough in Championship, Charlton scored zero and conceded three on 31 October; the away from home result was 0-3. Charlton's at home game on 24 October (Championship) ended 1-3 against Norwich, with one goal for and three against. On 17 October, Watford faced Charlton in Championship: Charlton lost 0-2 away from home, having scored zero and conceded two. Championship, 13 October brought an away meeting with Burnley; Charlton drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded. Charlton hosted Bristol City on 10 October (Championship) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.

14 points in 13 matches put Charlton 20th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.

Bolton came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding 11. A 3-2 defeat at home to Bristol City (31 October) was their most recent result.

Championship, 31 October brought a home meeting with Bristol City; Bolton lost 2-3, a return of two goals scored and three conceded. Bolton hosted Middlesbrough on 23 October (Championship) and lost 1-5; their goals totalled one, compared with five conceded. Southampton hosted Bolton (Championship) on 17 October. For Bolton, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 3-1 was Bolton's result against Wolverhampton on 13 October (Championship), playing away from home; Bolton won, with three scored to one conceded. The 10 October fixture (Championship) paired Bolton with Stoke. Bolton lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two.

Bolton: 19th, 14 points, 13 matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.

The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 0-0 draw at Bolton on 19 April 2016 and a 2-2 draw at Charlton on 15 December 2015.

After the match

Sam Dalby opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Bolton to make it 1-0. Harvey Knibbs (20') and Ruben Rodrigues (75') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Bolton only a 27.3% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Charlton's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2026/27 Championship. Charlton: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Charlton. one yellow card went to Bolton. Bolton: four substitutions. Ruben Rodrigues, on in the 74th minute, was booked. Bolton kept their opponents scoreless.