Wrexham 2–0 Middlesbrough: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1513against1585

A 72-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Goal expectation

Wrexham1.36

Middlesbrough1.98

Expected share of the points

01
2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 3-3. The latest was 2026, 2-2 in Championship. The live ratings are 1513 and 1585, giving 35.1% / 27.7% / 37.2%.
02
Both components point the same way, toward Middlesbrough: 1.38 to 1.00 going forward, 0.92 to 1.06 going back. Higher rating: the away side. In absolute terms: Wrexham 1.00/1.06, Middlesbrough 1.38/0.92 on attack and defence. 37.2% goes to Middlesbrough, the model's lean. A 2.1-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 9.5%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Its point estimate is 1-1. All three results are bunched inside 9.5 points. Final score: 2-0. Neither figure is thin: 60 and 63 matches respectively sit behind them. Middlesbrough's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 51.0%. Distance between the ratings: 72 points, moderate on this scale. The model gives 72.3% to someone winning. Versus the 1500 seed: +13 and +85. Goal expectation splits 1.36 to 1.98. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually.
03
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Wrexham beat Middlesbrough 2-0 on 4 November 2026.

Before the match

Wrexham: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat away to Sheffield Utd on 30 October; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Preston NE on 17 October.

Against Sheffield Utd in Championship, Wrexham scored zero and conceded one on 30 October; the away from home result was 0-1. Wrexham's away from home game on 24 October (Championship) ended 0-2 against Blackburn, with zero goals for and two against. On 17 October, Preston NE faced Wrexham in Championship: Wrexham won 4-1 at home, having scored four and conceded one. Championship, 13 October brought a home meeting with West Brom; Wrexham lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Wrexham visited Derby County on 10 October (Championship) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.

14 points in 13 matches put Wrexham 19th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.

Middlesbrough: four wins and one draw over five games; 14 goals scored, five conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 3-0 win at home to Charlton on 31 October; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 away to Bolton on 23 October.

3-0 was Middlesbrough's result against Charlton on 31 October (Championship), playing at home; Middlesbrough won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 23 October fixture (Championship) paired Middlesbrough with Bolton. Middlesbrough won 5-1 away from home, netting five goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Cardiff (Championship), Middlesbrough finished 2-2 on 17 October. Their score comprised two goals, against two from the opposition. 13 October: Middlesbrough won 3-2 against Stoke away from home in Championship, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against Wolverhampton in Championship, Middlesbrough scored one and conceded zero on 10 October; the at home result was 1-0.

28 points in 13 matches put Middlesbrough 2nd in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.

Previous meetings in our records: a 2-2 draw at Wrexham on 2 May and a 1-1 draw at Middlesbrough on 25 October 2025.

After the match

George Thomason opened the scoring 70 minutes into the game for Wrexham, set up by Kieffer Moore, to make it 1-0. Oliver Rathbone added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Wrexham, set up by Lewis O'Brien, to make it 2-0. George Dobson (62') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make Middlesbrough slightly the stronger side, by 72 rating points over Wrexham, even though it was Wrexham who won this one. Wrexham won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win. The card tally for Wrexham was one yellow card. two changes were recorded for Wrexham. Oliver Rathbone scored in minute 84 following entry for Wrexham in the 77th minute. Middlesbrough: five substitutions. A clean sheet for Wrexham.