Watford 1–0 Lincoln City: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1368against1459

A 91-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Goal expectation

Watford1.26

Lincoln City1.62

Expected share of the points

01
At 27.1% the draw is close to the most likely single outcome.
02
There is no trade-off to weigh: Lincoln City scores at the higher rate (0.94 to 0.70) and concedes at the lower (1.22 to 1.27). Someone wins 73.0% of the time by this model. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Elo expected shares: 46.3% and 53.7%. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. 40.3% goes to Lincoln City, the model's lean. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. With 60 and 55 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -132 and -41. The two ratings differ by 91 points. The away side is rated higher. A 13.2-point range top to bottom. Expected goals come out at 1.26 to 1.62. It ended 1-0. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.5% — not a strong call. Lincoln City sits 7.6 points above the next most likely result. Attack/defence pairs: 0.70/1.27 and 0.94/1.22.
03
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Watford edged past Lincoln City 1-0 on 3 November 2026.

Before the match

Watford: one win and four defeats over five games; five goals scored, 13 conceded. Latest: a 3-2 defeat away to Norwich on 31 October.

2-3 was Watford's result against Norwich on 31 October (Championship), playing away from home; Watford lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 24 October fixture (Championship) paired Watford with Wolverhampton. Watford lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Charlton (Championship), Watford finished 2-0 on 17 October. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 13 October: Watford lost 1-5 against Cardiff away from home in Championship, scoring one goal and allowing five. Against Burnley in Championship, Watford scored zero and conceded four on 10 October; the at home result was 0-4.

Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Watford 21st after 13 matches and 11 points.

Lincoln City came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding 15. A 3-1 defeat at home to Birmingham (31 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Burnley on 24 October.

The 31 October fixture (Championship) paired Lincoln City with Birmingham. Lincoln City lost 1-3 at home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Burnley (Championship), Lincoln City finished 4-1 on 24 October. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition. 17 October: Lincoln City drew 2-2 against Millwall away from home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against West Ham in Championship, Lincoln City scored zero and conceded six on 14 October; the at home result was 0-6. Lincoln City's away from home game on 10 October (Championship) ended 0-3 against Sheffield Utd, with zero goals for and three against.

Lincoln City: 16th, 15 points, 13 matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.

After the match

Stephy Mavididi opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Watford, set up by Myron Boadu, to make it 1-0. 7 players were booked, among them Ben House (47'), Stephy Mavididi (50'), Kévin Keben Biakolo (56'), Branimir Mlacic (80'), Sonny Bradley (88') and Edo Kayembe (88'). Our current Elo ratings make Lincoln City slightly the stronger side, by 91 rating points over Watford, even though it was Watford who won this one. Watford: five yellow cards. Watford made five changes. Branimir Mlacic was booked following entry for Watford in the 70th minute. two yellow cards went to Lincoln City. Lincoln City: five substitutions. A clean sheet for Watford.