Portsmouth 3–1 Swansea: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1522against1549

A 27-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Goal expectation

Portsmouth1.42

Swansea1.31

Expected share of the points

01
Across 4 recorded meetings back to 2024 the split is 1-1-2 from Portsmouth's side on wins, 7-5 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in Championship. The live ratings are 1522 and 1549, giving 42.1% / 26.7% / 31.2%.
02
Behind them are 60 and 60 rated matches. Higher rating: the away side. A 27-point difference on the rating scale. The match finished 3-1. One edge each: scoring to Swansea (1.08 v 0.98), conceding to Portsmouth (0.90 v 0.97). The leading outcome clears the second by 10.9 points. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.1% leads, but only just. Most likely single result is Portsmouth on 42.1%. Between best and worst outcome there is 15.4 points of daylight. Expected goals sit at 1.42 against 1.31. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +22 and +49. In absolute terms: Portsmouth 0.98/0.90, Swansea 1.08/0.97 on attack and defence. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 55.4% to 44.6%. Win-or-lose totals 73.3%; the draw takes the rest. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time.
03
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Portsmouth beat Swansea 3-1 on 3 November 2026.

Before the match

Portsmouth's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 4 conceded, with no defeats. Burnley were their latest opponents, away on 31 October: a 0-0 draw.

Portsmouth visited Burnley on 31 October (Championship) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Millwall travelled to face Portsmouth (Championship) on 24 October. For Portsmouth, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 1-1 was Portsmouth's result against Wolverhampton on 20 October (Championship), playing away from home; Portsmouth drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 17 October fixture (Championship) paired Portsmouth with Norwich. Portsmouth won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Sheffield Utd (Championship), Portsmouth finished 3-2 on 14 October. Their score comprised three goals, against two from the opposition.

Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Portsmouth 11th after 13 matches and 19 points.

Swansea came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding seven. A 4-0 win at home to Blackburn (31 October) was their most recent result.

31 October: Swansea won 4-0 against Blackburn at home in Championship, scoring four goals and allowing zero. Against QPR in Championship, Swansea scored zero and conceded five on 24 October; the away from home result was 0-5. Swansea's at home game on 17 October (Championship) ended 0-1 against West Ham, with zero goals for and one against. On 13 October, Millwall faced Swansea in Championship: Swansea won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Championship, 10 October brought a home meeting with Norwich; Swansea won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.

Swansea stood 3rd in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 26 points from 13 matches.

Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 away win for Swansea on 10 March and a 1-0 home win for Swansea on 9 December 2025.

After the match

Terry Devlin opened the scoring in the 36th minute for Portsmouth, set up by Odin Bailey, to make it 1-0. Zan Vipotnik levelled it from the penalty spot late on, in the 85th minute for Swansea to make it 1-1. Portsmouth regained the lead through Terry Devlin in the 92nd minute to make it 2-1. Thomas Waddingham added to the tally in the 98th minute for Portsmouth to make it 3-1. Ebou Adams (21') and Regan Poole (83') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Swansea slightly the stronger side, by 27 rating points over Portsmouth, even though it was Portsmouth who won this one. 3 gols came after the 80th minute. Portsmouth are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 Championship. two yellow cards went to Portsmouth. Portsmouth: five substitutions. After coming on for Portsmouth in minute 73, Thomas Waddingham scored in minute 98. five changes were recorded for Swansea. Zan Vipotnik, on in the 61st minute, scored in minute 85.