Birmingham 3–0 Millwall: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1582against1525

A 57-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Goal expectation

Birmingham1.87

Millwall1.09

Expected share of the points

01
On file: 24 previous meetings dating to 2011, 35-26 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-3 in Championship. The present numbers are 1582 against 1525, and the model turns that into 55.0% / 23.7% / 21.3%.
02
4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Birmingham is ahead on each half — 1.22 to 1.11 in attack, 0.72 to 1.03 in defence. The model gives 76.3% to someone winning. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.5%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Attack/defence pairs: 1.22/0.72 and 1.11/1.03. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The xG line reads 1.87 to 1.09. Outcomes span 33.7 points. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +82 and +25. Neither figure is thin: 60 and 62 matches respectively sit behind them. The match finished 3-0. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 66.9% to 33.1%. 57 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. The leading outcome clears the second by 31.3 points. Most likely single result is Birmingham on 55.0%.
03
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Birmingham comfortably beat Millwall 3-0 on 3 November 2026.

Before the match

Birmingham came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding two, keeping three clean sheets. On 31 October, Birmingham recorded a 3-1 win visiting Lincoln City; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Preston NE on 13 October.

Birmingham's away from home game on 31 October (Championship) ended 3-1 against Lincoln City, with three goals for and one against. On 24 October, Cardiff faced Birmingham in Championship: Birmingham lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one. Championship, 17 October brought a home meeting with QPR; Birmingham won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Birmingham hosted Preston NE on 13 October (Championship) and won 4-0; their goals totalled four, compared with zero conceded. West Brom hosted Birmingham (Championship) on 10 October. For Birmingham, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed.

Birmingham: 7th, 23 points, 13 matches in the calculated Championship standings at kickoff.

Millwall: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; eight goals scored, six conceded. Latest: a 4-1 win at home to Derby County on 31 October.

Millwall hosted Derby County on 31 October (Championship) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Portsmouth hosted Millwall (Championship) on 24 October. For Millwall, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 2-2 was Millwall's result against Lincoln City on 17 October (Championship), playing at home; Millwall drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 13 October fixture (Championship) paired Millwall with Swansea. Millwall lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Preston NE (Championship), Millwall finished 1-0 on 10 October. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition.

Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Millwall 13th after 13 matches and 18 points.

The last two recorded meetings were a 3-0 home win for Millwall on 25 February and a 4-0 home win for Birmingham on 4 November 2025.

After the match

Alex Cochrane opened the scoring inside the first minute for Birmingham to make it 1-0. Max Bird added to the tally in the 16th minute for Birmingham, set up by Jhon Solis, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Birmingham extended the lead through Jay Stansfield in the 29th minute, set up by Max Bird, to make it 3-0. Jordi Osei-Tutu (55') and Alex Cochrane (56') were booked. All the scoring was done by half time. Birmingham: 55% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Birmingham picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Birmingham was five. Millwall picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Millwall was five. Birmingham conceded no goals.