Prior record: 2-2-2 across 6 since 2010. Most recent 2018, 0-0 in Championship. Against that, current ratings read 1308 and 1397, a 89-point margin, and the model splits the tie 32.9% / 27.1% / 40.0%.
Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The leading outcome clears the second by 7.1 points. In absolute terms: Bolton 0.88/1.41, Stoke 0.75/1.16 on attack and defence. 72.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Higher rating: the away side. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.52 and 1.44. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 386 and 46 matches. The higher-rated side expects 53.4% of the points; the other side 46.6%. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.4%. The split is one apiece: Bolton leads the attacking rate on 0.88, Stoke the defensive on 1.16. Rounded, that is 1-1. 89 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Top of the distribution: Stoke, 40.0%. The tie closed out 1-2. Most and least likely outcomes are 12.9 points apart. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -192 and -103.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Bolton: two wins and three defeats over five games; nine goals scored, 13 conceded. Norwich were their latest opponents, away on 20 September: a 4-3 win.
On 20 September, Norwich faced Bolton in Championship: Bolton won 4-3 away from home, having scored four and conceded three. Championship, 12 September brought a home meeting with Cardiff; Bolton won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Bolton hosted West Ham on 8 September (Championship) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Millwall hosted Bolton (Championship) on 5 September. For Bolton, the score was 0-4: zero goals scored, four allowed. 2-3 was Bolton's result against Sheffield Utd on 1 September (Championship), playing away from home; Bolton lost, with two scored to three conceded.
ten points in eight matches put Bolton 15th in the pre-match results-based Championship standings.
Stoke were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring ten goals and conceding three. A 2-1 win at home to Sheffield Utd (19 September) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Charlton on 5 September.
19 September: Stoke won 2-1 against Sheffield Utd at home in Championship, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Watford in Championship, Stoke scored two and conceded one on 12 September; the away from home result was 2-1. Stoke's away from home game on 8 September (Championship) ended 1-1 against Cardiff, with one goal for and one against. On 5 September, Charlton faced Stoke in Championship: Stoke won 4-0 at home, having scored four and conceded zero. Championship, 1 September brought a home meeting with Norwich; Stoke won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded.
Stoke stood 10th in the results-based Championship table before kickoff, with 13 points from eight matches.
Previous meetings in our records: a 0-0 draw at Bolton on 29 December 2018 and a 2-0 home win for Stoke on 2 October 2018.
After the match
Stoke edged past Bolton 2-1 on 10 October 2026. Lamine Cissé opened the scoring 49 minutes into the game for Stoke, set up by Ethan Galbraith, to make it 1-0. Ben Wilmot added to the tally 62 minutes into the game for Stoke, set up by Jack McGlynn, to make it 2-0. Theo Bair pulled one back in the 92nd minute for Bolton, set up by Larra, to make it 1-2. Maksym Taloverov (20') was sent off. Jack McGlynn (34') and Max Conway (72') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. Stoke are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form. Bolton: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Bolton. Theo Bair entered for Bolton at 82 minutes and later scored in minute 92. Stoke: one yellow card and one red card. Stoke made four changes.