Across 20 recorded meetings back to 2011 the split is 4-8-8 from Watford's side on wins, 21-27 on goals. The last was 2025, 1-2 in Championship. History aside, the live ratings of 1411 and 1306 drive a 61.7% / 22.0% / 16.3% distribution.
Elo expected shares: 72.7% and 27.3%. Watford carries the largest share, 61.7%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.1% leads, but only just. Watford holds a 39.7-point edge on the next outcome. The edge is split: Burnley scores at the higher rate (0.72 to 0.70), Watford concedes at the lower (1.30 to 1.41). Spread across the three results is 45.4 points. The ratings draw on 46 and 38 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Its point estimate is 1-1. The four component numbers read 0.70, 1.30, 0.72, 1.41. It ended 0-4. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -89 and -194. 105 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Watford: one win and four defeats over five games; three goals scored, seven conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 1-0 defeat away to Bristol City on 18 September.
Watford visited Bristol City on 18 September (Championship) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Stoke travelled to face Watford (Championship) on 12 September. For Watford, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 2-1 was Watford's result against Preston NE on 8 September (Championship), playing at home; Watford won, with two scored to one conceded. The 5 September fixture (Championship) paired Watford with West Brom. Watford lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Swansea (Championship), Watford finished 0-2 on 1 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Watford 20th after eight matches and eight points.
Burnley: three draws and two defeats over five games; five goals scored, eight conceded, without a win. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Derby County on 19 September.
1-1 was Burnley's result against Derby County on 19 September (Championship), playing at home; Burnley drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 12 September fixture (Championship) paired Burnley with Swansea. Burnley lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing away from home against Wrexham (Championship), Burnley finished 1-1 on 8 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 5 September: Burnley lost 1-2 against Bristol City at home in Championship, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Middlesbrough in Championship, Burnley scored one and conceded one on 2 September; the at home result was 1-1.
Before kickoff, Championship's results-based standings placed Burnley 24th after eight matches and four points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-1 away win for Burnley on 18 April 2025 and a 2-1 home win for Burnley on 21 December 2024.
After the match
Burnley overwhelmed Watford 4-0 on 10 October 2026. Jacob Bruun Larsen opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Burnley, set up by Reo Hatate, to make it 1-0. Zeki Amdouni added to the tally in the 19th minute for Burnley, set up by Jacob Bruun Larsen, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Burnley extended the lead through Reo Hatate in the 25th minute, set up by Lucas Pires, to make it 3-0. Marcus Edwards scored the 4th goal for Burnley late on, in the 87th minute as they extended the lead, set up by Lucas Pires, to make it 4-0. Our current Elo ratings make Watford clearly the stronger side, by 105 rating points over Burnley, even though it was Burnley who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Burnley only a 16.3% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts Burnley at around 1.26 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Watford made five changes. Burnley made four changes. Marcus Edwards scored in minute 87 following entry for Burnley in the 63rd minute. A clean sheet for Burnley.