Prior record: 0-0-2 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-3 in comp-fd-ELC. Currently 1506 against 1557 — a 38.4% / 27.5% / 34.1% split.
The away side is rated higher. Birmingham leads the distribution by 4.3 points over Middlesbrough. Neither figure is thin: 46 and 49 matches respectively sit behind them. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Played and finished 2-2. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +6 and +57. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 13.2%. Neither component contradicts the other: Middlesbrough leads 1.06-0.88 forward and 0.80-0.86 back. The rating gap itself is 51 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Top to bottom the spread is only 10.9 points. The higher rating expects 48.0% of the points, the lower 52.0%. Its point estimate is 1-1. 72.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. In absolute terms: Birmingham 0.88/0.86, Middlesbrough 1.06/0.80 on attack and defence. Most likely single result is Birmingham on 38.4%. Expected goals 1.05-1.23.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.