Rated 1342 and 1475, these two produce a 27.6% / 25.6% / 46.8% split. West Brom holds both halves of the profile — 0.80 against 0.60 for scoring, 0.79 against 1.22 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
It ended 1-0. Expected goals 0.70-1.31. The distribution runs from 46.8% down to 25.6%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. West Brom holds a 19.2-point edge on the next outcome. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-1. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. 74.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The four component numbers read 0.60, 1.22, 0.80, 0.79. The model's preferred outcome is West Brom at 46.8%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 40.3% to 59.7%. Higher rating: the away side. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -158 and -25. With 38 and 46 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Ratings sit 133 apart. Most weight falls on 0-1 at 17.5%.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Wolverhampton edged past West Brom 1-0 on 20 September 2026. Jayson Molumby (25') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make West Brom clearly the stronger side, by 133 rating points over Wolverhampton, even though it was Wolverhampton who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Wolverhampton only a 27.6% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.