Neither component contradicts the other: Millwall leads 1.01-0.94 forward and 0.69-1.10 back. On rating it is 1588 against 1474, which the model resolves to 62.9% / 21.7% / 15.4%.
Most and least likely outcomes are 47.5 points apart. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. First to second is a 41.2-point step, Millwall over the draw. In absolute terms: Millwall 1.01/0.69, West Ham 0.94/1.10 on attack and defence. Millwall carries the largest share, 62.9%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Expected goals sit at 1.65 against 0.87. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +88 and -26. As a single number the model says 1-0. 1-0 leads the scorelines at 13.3% — not a strong call. By expected share of the points: 73.7% and 26.3%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. 114 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Neither figure is thin: 48 and 38 matches respectively sit behind them. The tie closed out 2-2. Someone wins 78.3% of the time by this model.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Millwall and West Ham drew 2-2 on 19 September 2026. Caleb Taylor opened the scoring in the 16th minute for Millwall to make it 1-0. Camiel Neghli added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Millwall, set up by Lyndon Dykes, to make it 2-0. Mohamadou Kante pulled one back 74 minutes into the game for West Ham, set up by Pablo Felipe, to make it 1-2. Konstantinos Mavropanos levelled it 80 minutes into the game for West Ham, set up by Manor Solomon, to make it 2-2. Mohamadou Kante (89') was sent off. Morato (40'), Pablo Felipe (83') and Max Kilman (86') were booked. Mohamadou Kante scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Millwall 114 points stronger than West Ham. West Ham are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Premier League 2025/26 and Championship 2026/27.