The rating gap is 229 points here, and the split follows at 16.9% / 22.3% / 60.9%.
The away side is rated higher. The model gives 77.8% to someone winning. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -194 and +35. In absolute terms: Burnley 0.72/1.41, Derby County 1.10/0.95 on attack and defence. Played and finished 1-1. Derby County holds a 38.6-point edge on the next outcome. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 9.9%. Both components point the same way, toward Derby County: 1.10 to 0.72 going forward, 0.95 to 1.41 going back. Rating separation comes to 229 points. Most and least likely outcomes are 44.0 points apart. Behind them are 38 and 46 rated matches. Point estimate: 1-2. Expected shares 28.0% against 72.0% on Elo. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Expected goals sit at 1.01 against 2.10. 60.9% goes to Derby County, the model's lean.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Burnley and Derby County drew 1-1 on 19 September 2026. Igor Julio (31'), Anel Ahmedhodzic (56'), David Ozoh (67') and Josh Laurent (68') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Derby County 229 points stronger than Burnley.