The ratings are far apart — 1501 against 1342, 159 points — and the model turns that into 68.3% / 20.2% / 11.5%.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +1 and -158. The xG line reads 2.07 to 0.86. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Outcomes span 56.8 points. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-0. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 159 points. Behind them are 46 and 38 rated matches. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. A 48.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. 2-0 leads the scorelines at 11.4% — not a strong call. By expected share of the points: 78.4% and 21.6%. The match finished 0-1. Raw profiles are 1.15 and 1.07 against 0.60 and 1.22. Both components point the same way, toward Sheffield Utd: 1.15 to 0.60 going forward, 1.07 to 1.22 going back. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. 79.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 68.3% goes to Sheffield Utd, the model's lean.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Wolverhampton edged past Sheffield Utd 1-0 on 13 September 2026. Raúl Jiménez opened the scoring late on, in the 90th minute for Wolverhampton, set up by Tommy Doyle, to make it 1-0. Sam McCallum (2'), Ladislav Krejčí (17') and Japhet Tanganga (48') were booked. Raúl Jiménez scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Sheffield Utd clearly the stronger side, by 159 rating points over Wolverhampton, even though it was Wolverhampton who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Wolverhampton only a 11.5% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.