No separation at all — 36.9% / 27.8% / 35.3% across the three results.
Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. The away side is rated higher. The model gives 72.2% to someone winning. Each side owns one half of the argument — Wrexham the scoring rate at 1.12, West Ham the conceding rate at 1.10. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The rating gap itself is 60 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.2% — not a strong call. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 38 and 46 rated matches respectively. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -26 and +34. Attack/defence pairs: 0.94/1.10 and 1.12/1.15. Elo expected shares: 50.7% and 49.3%. Top to bottom the spread is only 9.1 points. Final score: 6-0. Point estimate: 1-1. Only 1.6 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Most likely single result is West Ham on 36.9%. On expected goals the model has it 1.61 against 1.66.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
West Ham overwhelmed Wrexham 6-0 on 11 September 2026. Jarrod Bowen opened the scoring in the 28th minute for West Ham, set up by Morato, to make it 1-0. Joël Piroe added to the tally in the 37th minute for West Ham, set up by Valentín Castellanos, to make it 2-0. Konstantinos Mavropanos added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for West Ham to make it 3-0. Valentín Castellanos added to the tally 63 minutes into the game for West Ham to make it 4-0. Mohamadou Kante added to the tally 76 minutes into the game for West Ham, set up by Manor Solomon, to make it 5-0. Manor Solomon added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for West Ham, set up by Kyle Walker-Peters, to make it 6-0. Oliver Scarles (90') was booked. Mohamadou Kante scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Wrexham slightly the stronger side, by 60 rating points over West Ham, even though it was West Ham who won this one. On current ratings the model puts West Ham at around 1.61 goals in this pairing; they scored 6 here. West Ham are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Premier League 2025/26 and Championship 2026/27.