A 220-point edge to Swansea, which the model prices at 74.7% / 18.0% / 7.3%.
In absolute terms: Swansea 1.04/0.98, Burnley 0.72/1.41 on attack and defence. Swansea sits 56.7 points above the next most likely result. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. On expected goals the model has it 2.17 against 0.95. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Outcomes span 67.4 points. Final score: 3-1. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 83.8% to 16.2%. Flat distribution — 2-0 tops it at just 10.4%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +26 and -194. Top of the distribution: Swansea, 74.7%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 46 and 38 rated matches respectively. Its rounded call is 2-0. 220 points of rating separation. The model gives 82.0% to someone winning. The higher rating belongs to the home side. There is no trade-off to weigh: Swansea scores at the higher rate (1.04 to 0.72) and concedes at the lower (0.98 to 1.41).
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Swansea beat Burnley 3-1 on 12 September 2026. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Swansea 220 points stronger than Burnley. On current ratings the model favours Swansea at 74.7% in this pairing, and Swansea won this one.