On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 2-5 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-3 in comp-fd-ELC. The live ratings are 1429 and 1495, giving 35.8% / 28.0% / 36.2%.
72.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. On expected goals the model has it 1.18 against 1.23. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 66 points. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. A 8.2-point range covers every outcome here. The model's preferred outcome is Portsmouth at 36.2%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 46 and 46 matches. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -71 and -5. Elo expected shares: 49.9% and 50.1%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The top two outcomes are within 0.4 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 0.91 to 0.73 says Portsmouth, 1.00 to 1.08 says Charlton. Result on the day: 0-0. In absolute terms: Charlton 0.73/1.00, Portsmouth 0.91/1.08 on attack and defence. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 13.0% leads, but only just.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.