2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 4-1. The latest was 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-ELC. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1467 and 1588 — 121 points — for a 28.9% / 26.0% / 45.1% split.
In absolute terms: Blackburn 0.68/0.86, Millwall 1.01/0.69 on attack and defence. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -33 and +88. It ended 3-1. 121 points of rating separation. Millwall sits 16.2 points above the next most likely result. Millwall carries the largest share, 45.1%. The single-scoreline output is 0-1. Higher rating: the away side. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.69 and 1.17. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Someone wins 74.0% of the time by this model. Between best and worst outcome there is 19.1 points of daylight. 0-1 tops the scoreline distribution on 18.2%. Both components point the same way, toward Millwall: 1.01 to 0.68 going forward, 0.69 to 0.86 going back. Neither figure is thin: 46 and 48 matches respectively sit behind them. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 42.0% to 58.0%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Blackburn beat Millwall 3-1 on 12 September 2026. Hayden Carter (13'), Sam Morsy (39'), Harry Pickering (45'), Zak Sturge (45') and Gady Beyuku (50') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Millwall clearly the stronger side, by 121 rating points over Blackburn, even though it was Blackburn who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Blackburn only a 28.9% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. On current ratings the model puts Blackburn at around 0.69 goals in this pairing; they scored 3 here.