Match Report
Birmingham edged past Derby County 2-1 on 12 September 2026. Bobby Clark opened the scoring in the 40th minute for Derby County, set up by Samuel Szmodics, to make it 1-0. Carlos Vicente levelled it in the 42nd minute for Birmingham, set up by Liam Millar, to make it 1-1. Seung-Ho Paik put Birmingham in front 64 minutes into the game, set up by Liam Millar, to make it 2-1. Mohammed Fuseini (19'), Alex Cochrane (21') and August Priske (44') were booked. Seung-Ho Paik scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Derby County slightly the stronger side, by 29 rating points over Birmingham, even though it was Birmingham who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Birmingham only a 24.4% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Birmingham won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.