Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-0-2 from Norwich's side on wins, 2-6 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-ELC. Currently 1562 against 1506 — a 54.8% / 23.8% / 21.4% split.
Spread across the three results is 33.4 points. 76.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Most likely single result is Norwich on 54.8%. First to second is a 31.0-point step, Norwich over the draw. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Versus the 1500 seed: +62 and +6. Final score: 2-1. Norwich is ahead on each half — 1.11 to 0.88 in attack, 0.82 to 0.86 in defence. Behind them are 46 and 46 rated matches. Norwich's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 66.7%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The underlying goal expectation is 1.41 for Norwich, 0.97 for Birmingham. In absolute terms: Norwich 1.11/0.82, Birmingham 0.88/0.86 on attack and defence. Point estimate: 1-0. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-0 at 13.0%. Ratings sit 56 apart.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Norwich edged past Birmingham 2-1 on 9 September 2026. Oscar Schwartau opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Norwich, set up by Mathias Kvistgaarden, to make it 1-0. Pape Diallo added to the tally in the 39th minute for Norwich, set up by Andre Brooks, to make it 2-0. Carlos Vicente pulled one back 64 minutes into the game for Birmingham, set up by Liam Millar, to make it 1-2. 8 players were booked, among them Benjamin Chrisene (13'), José Cordoba (25'), Jack Stacey (59'), Oscar Schwartau (60'), Carlos Vicente (60') and Phil Neumann (83'). Norwich won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.