A 228-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 75.4% / 17.8% / 6.8% distribution.
The higher-rated side expects 84.4% of the points; the other side 15.6%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The match finished 1-1. A decisive result carries 82.2% against 17.8% for the draw. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 46 and 38 matches. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.6%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Wrexham scores at the higher rate (1.12 to 0.72) and concedes at the lower (1.15 to 1.41). On expected goals the model has it 2.34 against 1.12. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +34 and -194. Ratings sit 228 apart. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Wrexham leads the distribution by 57.6 points over the draw. Most and least likely outcomes are 68.6 points apart. 75.4% goes to Wrexham, the model's lean. Attack/defence pairs: 1.12/1.15 and 0.72/1.41. Its rounded call is 2-1.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Wrexham and Burnley drew 1-1 on 8 September 2026. Zeki Amdouni opened the scoring in the 26th minute for Burnley, set up by Largie Ramazani, to make it 1-0. Jacques Ekomie levelled it 55 minutes into the game for Wrexham, set up by Issa Kaboré, to make it 1-1. Issa Kaboré (14') and Aaron Ramsey (65') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Wrexham 228 points stronger than Burnley.