2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 4-2. The latest was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-ELC. History aside, the live ratings of 1557 and 1588 drive a 41.4% / 26.8% / 31.8% distribution.
Expected goals 1.08-1.09. A 14.6-point range top to bottom. Distance between the ratings: 31 points, moderate on this scale. A 9.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The four component numbers read 1.06, 0.80, 1.01, 0.69. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. One edge each: scoring to Middlesbrough (1.06 v 1.01), conceding to Millwall (0.69 v 0.80). The away side is rated higher. Millwall's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 45.1%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +57 and +88. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 13.4%. The model's preferred outcome is Middlesbrough at 41.4%. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Played and finished 2-2. Win-or-lose totals 73.2%; the draw takes the rest. The ratings draw on 49 and 48 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Middlesbrough and Millwall drew 2-2 on 15 September 2026. Taïryk Arconte opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Millwall, set up by Camiel Neghli, to make it 1-0. Lyndon Dykes added to the tally in the 36th minute for Millwall, set up by Caleb Taylor, to make it 2-0. Amario Cozier-Duberry pulled one back 50 minutes into the game for Middlesbrough to make it 1-2. William Lankshear levelled it 61 minutes into the game for Middlesbrough, set up by Luke Ayling, to make it 2-2. Derek Mazou-Sacko (59') and Riley McGree (66') were booked. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form.