On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 2-1 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-ELC. History aside, the live ratings of 1660 and 1526 drive a 65.4% / 21.0% / 13.6% distribution.
Versus the 1500 seed: +160 and +26. Southampton sits 44.4 points above the next most likely result. Both components point the same way, toward Southampton: 1.43 to 1.04 going forward, 0.77 to 0.98 going back. The model's preferred outcome is Southampton at 65.4%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Someone wins 79.0% of the time by this model. A 51.8-point range top to bottom. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.9%. Distance between the ratings: 134 points, wide on this scale. Attack/defence pairs: 1.43/0.77 and 1.04/0.98. The higher rating expects 75.9% of the points, the lower 24.1%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Its point estimate is 2-1. Expected goals come out at 2.09 to 1.07. Played and finished 3-1. Both figures rest on decent samples, 48 and 46 matches.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.