This is one of the wider gaps on the slate: 1506 plays 1342, 164 points apart, splitting 68.9% / 20.0% / 11.1%.
5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ratings sit 164 apart. Outcomes span 57.8 points. Birmingham leads the distribution by 48.9 points over the draw. 1-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 16.2%. Goal expectation splits 1.59 to 0.69. Birmingham carries the largest share, 68.9%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 46 and 38 matches. Versus the 1500 seed: +6 and -158. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. A decisive result carries 80.0% against 20.0% for the draw. It ended 2-2. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Rounded, that is 1-0. The four component numbers read 0.88, 0.86, 0.60, 1.22. Elo expected shares: 78.9% and 21.1%. Birmingham is ahead on each half — 0.88 to 0.60 in attack, 0.86 to 1.22 in defence.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Birmingham and Wolverhampton drew 2-2 on 6 September 2026. Fer López opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Wolverhampton, set up by Rodrigo Gomes, to make it 1-0. Jay Stansfield levelled it in the 23rd minute for Birmingham, set up by Patrick Roberts, to make it 1-1. Wolverhampton regained the lead through Ladislav Krejčí in the 31st minute to make it 2-1. Jackson Tchatchoua (an own goal) levelled it in the 36th minute for Birmingham to make it 2-2. Marshall Munetsi (51'), Christoph Klarer (53') and Phil Neumann (67') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Birmingham 164 points stronger than Wolverhampton. All the scoring was done by half time.