This is a genuine coin-flip by the model's reckoning — 36.6% / 27.9% / 35.5%, with nothing above 36.6%.
The three outcomes sit within 8.7 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. With 38 and 46 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.2%. Higher rating: the away side. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The underlying goal expectation is 1.33 for West Ham, 1.64 for Derby County. Most likely single result is West Ham on 36.6%. The four component numbers read 0.94, 1.10, 1.10, 0.95. Elo expected shares: 50.6% and 49.4%. Versus the 1500 seed: -26 and +35. The model gives 72.1% to someone winning. Distance between the ratings: 61 points, moderate on this scale. Derby County holds both halves of the profile — 1.10 against 0.94 for scoring, 0.95 against 1.10 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. It ended 3-0. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Only 1.1 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
West Ham comfortably beat Derby County 3-0 on 5 September 2026. Joël Piroe opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for West Ham, set up by Valentín Castellanos, to make it 1-0. Edvin Austbø added to the tally late on, in the 87th minute for West Ham to make it 2-0. Mohamadou Kante added to the tally in the 95th minute for West Ham, set up by Edvin Austbø, to make it 3-0. Alex Mowatt (21') and Mohammed Fuseini (77') were booked. Edvin Austbø and Mohamadou Kante scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Derby County slightly the stronger side, by 61 rating points over West Ham, even though it was West Ham who won this one. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. West Ham are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Premier League 2025/26 and Championship 2026/27.