Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-ELC. The live ratings are 1397 and 1429, giving 41.5% / 26.8% / 31.7%.
The two ratings differ by 32 points. On expected goals the model has it 1.12 against 1.15. Both figures rest on decent samples, 46 and 46 matches. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The match finished 4-0. Its rounded call is 1-1. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 13.3%. The leading outcome clears the second by 9.8 points. Win-or-lose totals 73.2%; the draw takes the rest. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -103 and -71. The away side is rated higher. The model's preferred outcome is Stoke at 41.5%. Expected shares 54.7% against 45.3% on Elo. Each side owns one half of the argument — Stoke the scoring rate at 0.75, Charlton the conceding rate at 1.00. The three results cover 14.7 points. Raw profiles are 0.75 and 1.16 against 0.73 and 1.00. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Stoke overwhelmed Charlton 4-0 on 5 September 2026. Justin Devenny opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 15 minutes for Stoke to make it 1-0. Ethan Galbraith added to the tally in the 22nd minute for Stoke to make it 2-0. Ethan Galbraith added to the tally in the 25th minute for Stoke, set up by Eric Bocat, to make it 3-0. Justin Devenny added to the tally in the 40th minute for Stoke, set up by Eric Bocat, to make it 4-0. Dan McNamara (50') was sent off. Miles Leaburn (45'), Ethan Galbraith (45'), Dan McNamara (48') and Conor Coventry (62') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Charlton slightly the stronger side, by 32 rating points over Stoke, even though it was Stoke who won this one. All the scoring was done by half time. On current ratings the model puts Stoke at around 1.12 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Stoke are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.