2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 4-2. The latest was 2026, 3-0 in comp-fd-ELC. Currently 1475 against 1411 — a 55.9% / 23.5% / 20.6% split.
1-0 is the single most probable result at 15.7%, clear of 2-0 on 12.1%. The higher rating expects 67.8% of the points, the lower 32.2%. West Brom carries the largest share, 55.9%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. With 46 and 46 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. A 32.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The match finished 1-0. Higher rating: the home side. The three results cover 35.3 points. Rating separation comes to 64 points. The model gives 76.5% to someone winning. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Expected goals sit at 1.54 against 0.75. Rounded, that is 1-0. There is no trade-off to weigh: West Brom scores at the higher rate (0.80 to 0.70) and concedes at the lower (0.79 to 1.30). Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -25 and -89. Attack/defence pairs: 0.80/0.79 and 0.70/1.30.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.