The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 0 to Preston NE, 2 to Blackburn, 0 drawn, 1-3 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-ELC. History aside, the live ratings of 1445 and 1467 drive a 42.9% / 26.5% / 30.6% distribution.
Blackburn's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 43.8%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. 22 points of rating separation. Scorelines above 8%: 4. On expected goals the model has it 1.13 against 1.11. In absolute terms: Preston NE 0.88/1.21, Blackburn 0.68/0.86 on attack and defence. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Top of the distribution: Preston NE, 42.9%. The gap between first and second outcome is 12.3 points, Preston NE ahead of Blackburn. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 46 and 46 matches. A 16.4-point range top to bottom. Result on the day: 2-1. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 13.4%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The model gives 73.5% to someone winning. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -55 and -33. The two halves pull apart — Preston NE better going forward at 0.88, Blackburn tighter at the back on 0.86.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Preston NE edged past Blackburn 2-1 on 5 September 2026. Callum Lang opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Preston NE, set up by Delano Burgzorg, to make it 1-0. Callum Lang added to the tally in the 27th minute for Preston NE, set up by Jordan Thompson, to make it 2-0. Stanley Mills (an own goal) pulled one back 51 minutes into the game for Blackburn to make it 1-2. Yuri Ribeiro (26'), Sam Morsy (40'), Delano Burgzorg (42'), Stanley Mills (53') and Harry Clarke (66') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Blackburn just 22 rating points ahead of Preston NE, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. Preston NE won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.