Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-ELC. Against that, current ratings read 1526 and 1534, a 8-point margin, and the model splits the tie 45.1% / 26.0% / 28.9%.
The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 10.1% leads, but only just. Ratings sit 8 apart. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +26 and +34. The model gives 74.0% to someone winning. The model's preferred outcome is Swansea at 45.1%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.78 and 1.48. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The two halves pull apart — Wrexham better going forward at 1.12, Swansea tighter at the back on 0.98. Outcomes span 19.1 points. Attack/defence pairs: 1.04/0.98 and 1.12/1.15. Higher rating: the away side. It ended 0-0. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Expected shares 58.1% against 41.9% on Elo. Swansea sits 16.2 points above the next most likely result. Neither figure is thin: 46 and 46 matches respectively sit behind them.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.