On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 2-3 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-ELC. The present numbers are 1501 against 1562, and the model turns that into 36.7% / 27.8% / 35.4%.
Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +1 and +62. Point estimate: 1-1. Final score: 1-3. Top to bottom the spread is only 8.9 points. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Expected goals come out at 1.39 to 1.60. The model gives 72.1% to someone winning. The ratings draw on 46 and 46 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Sheffield Utd has the better scoring rate (1.15) and Norwich the better defensive one (0.82). The four component numbers read 1.15, 1.07, 1.11, 0.82. Only 1.3 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. The model's preferred outcome is Sheffield Utd at 36.7%. Elo expected shares: 50.6% and 49.4%. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.2% — not a strong call. The rating gap itself is 61 points, which is moderate by the model's standards.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Norwich beat Sheffield Utd 3-1 on 5 September 2026. Anthony Musaba opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Norwich, set up by Pelle Mattsson, to make it 1-0. Patrick Bamford levelled it in the 23rd minute for Sheffield Utd, set up by Tyrese Campbell, to make it 1-1. Norwich regained the lead through Mohamed Toure in the 44th minute, set up by Anis Ben Slimane, to make it 2-1. Mathias Kvistgaarden added to the tally 62 minutes into the game for Norwich to make it 3-1. Ruairi McConville (38'), Kellen Fisher (39'), Mohamed Toure (44'), Liam Kitching (45') and Rhys Norrington-Davies (56') were booked. Mathias Kvistgaarden scored after coming off the bench.