Prior record: 0-0-2 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-4 in comp-fd-ELC. Today those sides rate 1441 and 1557, 116 apart, which resolves to 29.6% / 26.2% / 44.1%.
It ended 0-1. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.9%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 46 and 49 matches. Outcomes span 17.9 points. Top of the distribution: Middlesbrough, 44.1%. Middlesbrough is ahead on each half — 1.06 to 0.94 in attack, 0.80 to 1.25 in defence. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -59 and +57. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The higher rating expects 57.3% of the points, the lower 42.7%. As a single number the model says 1-1. Win-or-lose totals 73.7%; the draw takes the rest. Middlesbrough sits 14.5 points above the next most likely result. Expected goals sit at 1.12 against 1.78. Attack/defence pairs: 0.94/1.25 and 1.06/0.80. Distance between the ratings: 116 points, wide on this scale.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Middlesbrough edged past QPR 1-0 on 5 September 2026. William Lankshear opened the scoring in the 20th minute for Middlesbrough, set up by Callum Brittain, to make it 1-0. Adilson Malanda (58'), Callum Brittain (76') and Glen Kamara (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Middlesbrough 116 points stronger than QPR. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form.