A 251-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 14.8% / 21.5% / 63.6% distribution.
Neither component contradicts the other: Middlesbrough leads 1.06-0.72 forward and 0.80-1.41 back. 63.6% goes to Middlesbrough, the model's lean. Played and finished 1-1. Reduced to one result that is 0-2. The model gives 78.4% to someone winning. Higher rating: the away side. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Raw profiles are 0.72 and 1.41 against 1.06 and 0.80. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -194 and +57. Expected shares 25.5% against 74.5% on Elo. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. On expected goals the model has it 0.86 against 2.01. Distance between the ratings: 251 points, wide on this scale. Spread thin across outcomes, 0-2 highest at 11.5%. First to second is a 42.1-point step, Middlesbrough over the draw. With 38 and 49 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Between best and worst outcome there is 48.8 points of daylight.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Burnley and Middlesbrough drew 1-1 on 2 September 2026. Aidan Morris opened the scoring in the 23rd minute for Middlesbrough, set up by Sebastian Berhalter, to make it 1-0. Ugo Raghouber levelled it 54 minutes into the game for Burnley, set up by Zeki Amdouni, to make it 1-1. Hannibal Mejbri (28'), William Lankshear (39'), Alfie Jones (71') and Ugo Raghouber (90') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Middlesbrough 251 points stronger than Burnley. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form.