2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 3-1. The latest was 2026, 2-0 in comp-fd-ELC. The present numbers are 1526 against 1411, and the model turns that into 62.9% / 21.7% / 15.4%.
Its point estimate is 2-0. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +26 and -89. Final score: 2-0. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. 78.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Neither component contradicts the other: Swansea leads 1.04-0.70 forward and 0.98-1.30 back. Swansea leads the distribution by 41.2 points over the draw. The higher rating expects 73.8% of the points, the lower 26.2%. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-0 highest at 10.7%. The distribution runs from 62.9% down to 15.4%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 46 and 46 matches. Swansea carries the largest share, 62.9%. Expected goals 2.01-0.93. 115 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The four component numbers read 1.04, 0.98, 0.70, 1.30. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Swansea beat Watford 2-0 on 1 September 2026. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Swansea 115 points stronger than Watford. On current ratings the model favours Swansea at 62.9% in this pairing, and Swansea won this one.