On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2026, 4-3 on goals. Last time: 2026, 4-0 in comp-fd-PL. Currently 1474 against 1342 — a 65.1% / 21.1% / 13.8% split.
Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The four component numbers read 0.94, 1.10, 0.60, 1.22. Result on the day: 4-2. There is no trade-off to weigh: West Ham scores at the higher rate (0.94 to 0.60) and concedes at the lower (1.10 to 1.22). The underlying goal expectation is 1.70 for West Ham, 0.89 for Wolverhampton. Behind them are 38 and 38 rated matches. West Ham leads the distribution by 44.0 points over the draw. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 1-0 leads the scorelines at 12.8% — not a strong call. Its point estimate is 1-0. The home side is rated higher. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -26 and -158. Most and least likely outcomes are 51.3 points apart. Most likely single result is West Ham on 65.1%. West Ham's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 75.7%. Someone wins 78.9% of the time by this model.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
West Ham beat Wolverhampton 4-2 on 1 September 2026. Divine Mukasa opened the scoring in the 33rd minute for West Ham, set up by Pablo Felipe, to make it 1-0. Jarrod Bowen added to the tally from the penalty spot in the 42nd minute for West Ham to make it 2-0. Marshall Munetsi pulled one back in the 44th minute for Wolverhampton to make it 1-2. Divine Mukasa added to the tally 53 minutes into the game for West Ham, set up by Jarrod Bowen, to make it 3-1. Konstantinos Mavropanos added to the tally 64 minutes into the game for West Ham to make it 4-1. Konstantinos Mavropanos (an own goal) got one back 69 minutes into the game for Wolverhampton, set up by Jackson Tchatchoua, to make it 2-4. Divine Mukasa (45'), Jordan James (87') and Valentín Castellanos (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have West Ham 132 points stronger than Wolverhampton. On current ratings the model favours West Ham at 65.1% in this pairing, and West Ham won this one. On current ratings the model puts West Ham at around 1.7 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here. West Ham are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Premier League 2025/26 and Championship 2026/27.