On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 1-3 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-ELC. The present numbers are 1534 against 1506, and the model turns that into 50.6% / 24.8% / 24.6%.
Outcomes span 26.0 points. Behind them are 46 and 46 rated matches. 50.6% goes to Wrexham, the model's lean. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +34 and +6. Expected shares 63.1% against 36.9% on Elo. The match finished 1-2. A 25.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Win-or-lose totals 75.2%; the draw takes the rest. The rating gap itself is 28 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. In absolute terms: Wrexham 1.12/1.15, Birmingham 0.88/0.86 on attack and defence. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.9%. xG: 1.42 to 1.37. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Neither side holds both halves — Wrexham scores at 1.12, Birmingham concedes at 0.86. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Reduced to one result that is 1-1.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Birmingham edged past Wrexham 2-1 on 28 August 2026. Phil Neumann opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Birmingham, set up by Alex Cochrane, to make it 1-0. Callum Doyle levelled it 54 minutes into the game for Wrexham, set up by Lewis O'Brien, to make it 1-1. Birmingham regained the lead through Phil Neumann 63 minutes into the game, set up by August Priske, to make it 2-1. Alex Cochrane (7'), Bright Osayi-Samuel (50') and Bailey Cadamarteri (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Wrexham slightly the stronger side, by 28 rating points over Birmingham, even though it was Birmingham who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Birmingham only a 24.6% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.