Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-0-2 from Charlton's side on wins, 1-4 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-ELC. The present numbers are 1429 against 1445, and the model turns that into 43.8% / 26.3% / 29.9%.
The match finished 1-0. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The split is one apiece: Preston NE leads the attacking rate on 0.88, Charlton the defensive on 1.00. The ratings draw on 46 and 46 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. First to second is a 13.9-point step, Charlton over Preston NE. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Expected goals 1.31-1.19. Between best and worst outcome there is 17.5 points of daylight. A 16-point spread sits between the two figures. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 57.0% to 43.0%. Someone wins 73.7% of the time by this model. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.8% leads, but only just. The four component numbers read 0.73, 1.00, 0.88, 1.21. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -71 and -55.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Charlton edged past Preston NE 1-0 on 29 August 2026. Karlan Grant opened the scoring 56 minutes into the game for Charlton, set up by Millenic Alli, to make it 1-0. Léo Leroy (54') and Joe Rankin-Costello (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Preston NE just 16 rating points ahead of Charlton, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. Charlton won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.