No separation at all — 37.5% / 27.7% / 34.8% across the three results.
The higher rating belongs to the away side. Expected goals sit at 1.03 against 1.24. The ratings draw on 38 and 46 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. By expected share of the points: 51.4% and 48.6%. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 13.2% — not a strong call. Both components point the same way, toward Stoke: 0.75 to 0.60 going forward, 1.16 to 1.22 going back. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Attack/defence pairs: 0.60/1.22 and 0.75/1.16. Top to bottom the spread is only 9.8 points. A 2.7-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. The tie closed out 4-1. Rating separation comes to 55 points. Someone wins 72.3% of the time by this model. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -158 and -103. 37.5% goes to Wolverhampton, the model's lean.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Wolverhampton comfortably beat Stoke 4-1 on 29 August 2026. Sam Gallagher opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Stoke to make it 1-0. Rodrigo Gomes levelled it in the 19th minute for Wolverhampton to make it 1-1. Rodrigo Gomes put Wolverhampton in front in the 23rd minute to make it 2-1. Raúl Jiménez added to the tally from the penalty spot 55 minutes into the game for Wolverhampton to make it 3-1. Jordan James added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Wolverhampton, set up by Fer López, to make it 4-1. Joon-ho Bae (15'), Bosun Lawal (31'), Mateus Mané (39'), Sam Gallagher (45') and Sorba Thomas (90') were booked. Jordan James scored after coming off the bench. On current ratings the model puts Wolverhampton at around 1.03 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Stoke are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.