Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-1-1 from Southampton's side on wins, 2-3 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-ELC. Against that, current ratings read 1660 and 1588, a 72-point margin, and the model splits the tie 57.1% / 23.2% / 19.6%.
From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +160 and +88. Attack/defence pairs: 1.43/0.77 and 1.01/0.69. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. A 33.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Distance between the ratings: 72 points, moderate on this scale. Neither figure is thin: 48 and 48 matches respectively sit behind them. Most likely single result is Southampton on 57.1%. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.43 to 1.01 says Southampton, 0.69 to 0.77 says Millwall. Result on the day: 5-1. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Southampton's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 68.8%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.5% leads, but only just. Its point estimate is 1-1. Win-or-lose totals 76.7%; the draw takes the rest. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Between best and worst outcome there is 37.5 points of daylight.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Southampton overwhelmed Millwall 5-1 on 29 August 2026. Ryan Manning (4') and Mark Sykes (10') were booked. All the scoring was done by half time. On current ratings the model favours Southampton at 57.1% in this pairing, and Southampton won this one. On current ratings the model puts Southampton at around 1.45 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Southampton won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.